My state volleyball picks: ʻIolani in D-I, Maryknoll in a close D-II race

Pre-opening-round prediction record: These picks reflect the published results, league-tournament performances, and HHSAA draw available before opening-round play on October 26. They are preserved as Lee Lamb’s assessment; official results supersede the projected bracket.

I’m picking ʻIolani to win the Division I state championship and Maryknoll to take Division II. I feel considerably stronger about the first pick.

ʻIolani enters championship week with the clearest recent evidence behind it: a convincing ILH title-match sweep of Kamehameha-Kapālama. Division II is harder to separate. Seabury Hall deserves its No. 1 seed, Maryknoll has a compelling case, and several teams outside the top four could change the bracket.

These predictions draw on published results, recent league-tournament performances and the HHSAA draw. They are my assessment of the available evidence, with some matchups much clearer than others.

Division I: look beyond the seeds

The first thing that stands out in the D-I field is the presence of Moanalua and Kamehameha-Kapālama in the opening round.

Neither has a bye. Both are capable of reaching the semifinals.

That makes Wednesday particularly interesting. If the opening round goes as I expect, Moanalua will face fourth-seeded King Kekaulike, while Kamehameha will meet third-seeded Waiākea. I’m picking both unseeded teams to advance, although the Kamehameha–Waiākea matchup is one of my least comfortable calls.

Here is my projected championship bracket. Scores indicate sets won, and matchups after the first round depend on the earlier predictions holding.

Why I’m backing ʻIolani

The Raiders’ 25–21, 25–15, 25–18 win over Kamehameha in the ILH championship carries weight. According to ScoringLive’s report, Georgie Lee finished with 15 kills, Poema Kalama-Kingma added 11, and Taimane Ainuʻu recorded 28 assists.

That performance gives me a stronger foundation for picking ʻIolani than its seed alone.

Kahuku’s four-set OIA championship victory over Moanalua is also significant. The Red Raiders enter states having beaten a leading contender in a title match, which is why I have them reaching Friday’s final.

The projected Kahuku–Kamehameha semifinal is close to a toss-up. Waiākea could prevent that matchup altogether. The BIIF champion deserves more than an automatic dismissal against an ILH opponent; my Kamehameha pick is a narrow lean.

Campbell also deserves attention Monday. The Sabers pushed Moanalua to 16–14 in the fifth set of their OIA semifinal. I favor Kamehameha, but Campbell has already demonstrated how dangerous it can be.

Division II: a narrow lean toward Maryknoll

My D-II final follows the top two seeds, but I don’t expect an easy path for either.

I have Hawaiʻi Baptist beating Kaiser in the opening round and Le Jardin advancing past Parker and Kauaʻi. That would put two ILH challengers in Seabury’s path before the championship.

Maryknoll’s reported wins over Le Jardin and Hawaiʻi Baptist support its ability to handle this field. They do not establish an advantage over Seabury, which is why I see the championship as a five-set match rather than a clear separation.

HBA over Kaiser is another pick I could easily get wrong. HBA has a reported five-set win over Maryknoll, while Kaiser came within two points in the deciding set against Waipahu in the OIA final. Either could make Seabury’s quarterfinal difficult.

Waipahu’s first OIA championship since 1975 makes the Marauders one of the tournament’s best stories. I have them reaching the semifinals before Maryknoll ends their run.

My Hawaiʻi Prep–Waiʻanae and Hāna–Kaʻū predictions carry the least confidence. There are too few comparable recent results available to make a strong case for either side.

For me, the most revealing matches may come before Friday: Moanalua’s potential meeting with Kekaulike, Kamehameha’s possible matchup with Waiākea, and whichever team emerges from Kaiser–HBA to challenge Seabury.

Those are the matches most likely to force a revision of these picks.

Official bracket and source record

Follow the official HHSAA Division I bracket and Division II bracket for schedules and results.

The ILH final statistics are linked above through ScoringLive. The Maryknoll comparison results are linked through the applicable public MaxPreps and ScoringLive records. The Campbell–Moanalua semifinal context is supported by the published Star-Advertiser report. HSVB Hub treats this as an opinion column, not a forecast guarantee.